Infocom might just be the Atlantic City of the software world. For some folks here, wagering is more than a diverting pastime; it's a way of life.
Perhaps the culprit is one-too-many trade shows in Las Vegas. Perhaps it's just a by-product of working in such an intense atmosphere of high-stakes high-tech entrepreneurism. But whatever the reason, whenever one Infocommie says "X," and another one says "Y," there's going to be a wager any minute. You can bet on it.
For example, take Info-Marketeer Mike Dornbrook, a cheery optimist, and InfoAuthor Brian Moriarty, an industrial-strength pessimist. When Brian's Wishbringer was released in June of 1985, Mike bet him that it would sell at least 45,000 copies by the end of that year. By December, Wishbringer sales were nearly double that figure, so Mike ended up enjoying a fine dinner at the swank Parker House restaurant at Brian's expense. Seeking revenge, Brian made the same bet in 1986 for his second game, Trinity. As this issue was going to press, that bet was going right down to the wire ...
InfoAuthor Steve Meretzky made the first in a series of bets with Dornbrook after Mike predicted that people would send the postcards from their Planetfall package to Infocom as fan mail. So Steve bet him that less than 100 postcards would be received during the first year after Planetfall's release. When only 3 postcards arrived by September 1, 1984, Steve cheerfully ran up a sizable tab at The Ritz. Mike, by being off by a factor of 33, set an InfoBetting record that has never been equalled since.
Those same two were at it again a few months later. Mike bet that The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy would, some time before the end of 1985, hit the number-one spot on Softsel's Hot List, which was then the industry's bellweather bestseller list. When the game hit number one in early 1985 and stayed there for most of the year, Steve was obliged to pay off the terms of the wager: six hours of manual labor. Imagine all those people who bought Hitchhiker's, unaware that they were indirectly helping Mike Dornbrook get a new patio!
Steve swore revenge, and bet Mike that "no way would Leather Goddesses of Phobos sell more than 87,500 copies" by the end of 1986. The stakes were raised: this one was for EIGHT hours of manual labor. At last report, Steve was rumored to be stocking up on shovels, pickaxes, and a good steady whip.
But the optimism of a Mike Dornbrook and the pessimism of a Brian Moriarty pale in comparison to that of Marc Blank, co-author of Zork, and Brian "Spike" Berkowitz, co-author of Cornerstone. In fact, it was Spike who coined such immortal InfoPhrases as "It'll never work" and "It's worse than that."
Marc's first bet with Spike was that Infocom's sales would top $5 million in 1983, at a time when projections were for $3 million. Sales passed $6 million, doubling the forecast and quadrupling the 1982 figure. Spike paid off at The Ritz. The next year, Dornbrook took over for Marc and wagered that sales would break $15 million. This time it was Brian's turn to sup for free, as sales "only" increased by 70%.
Marc returned next year, betting Spike that sales would more than double. The stakes were raised: dinner at Lutece in New York City, including transportation. Pessimism won for the second year in a row; sales "only" went up 20%.
Then came the granddaddy of InfoBets. The bettors: Marc and Spike. The bet: whether Infocom stock would be publicly traded at a price of at least $20 a share by June 30, 1987. The stakes: dinner in Paris, including transportation and lodging. When Activision purchased Infocom during 1986, the sale price worked out to significantly less than $20 per share of Infocom stock. (We can't reveal the actual price, but this is the only bet which rivals Mike Dornbrook's error factor.) Spike has not yet collected; as he and Marc are both now living on the west coast, an amendment to dinner in Tokyo has been discussed.
More recently, InfoBetting has taken some rather silly turns, with bets being waged over such odd points as the lyrics of "Puff the Magic Dragon" and the number of calories in a banana. The most interesting bet of the last year, however, involved Spike, InfoPrez Joel Berez, and InfoSales Manager Gabby Accardi. The winner, the first person to lose 15 pounds, would get an all-expenses paid trip to Bermuda! The bet ended in indecisive confusion, but Spike and Joel took Gabby to Bermuda anyway. The trio has since been known as "The Bermuda Triangle."
Winter/Spring 1987; The Status Line; page 5
Copyright (c) 1987 Infocom, Inc.